Abstraksi
The financial crisis repeatedly
struck various countries in the world by turns both developing and developed
countries. In fact, during the period of a modern economy such as now, its
intensity becomes more frequent and acute. Therefore, early detection system
crisis became an important presence in order to avoid the negative impact of the
crisis more severe.
This study tried to examine
indicators of anything that can be used as reference in predicting how likely
will the crisis in a country like Indonesia are dual banking by using binary
logistic regression method.
The results suggest an important
conclusion is interesting. First, Islamic banks tend to have problems with
liquidity (with evidence of significant FAR) while the conventional banks tend
to have problems with solvency (CAR significant). From this it can be concluded
that the new Islamic bank will be a crisis if the real sector disturbed. While
conventional banks will continue to flare up if there is disruption of the
financial crisis. Second, a significant M2RES related variables, both Islamic
and conventional models, then this could be a result of the enactment of fiat
money and fractional reserve banking system (FRBS). Though both of these is a
contributor to excess money supply is large enough. So it becomes a natural
thing to understand if the two models-both Islamic and conventional, have
similar conditions. As a consequence, the Islamic banking entity actually not
really going to be free from the adverse effects of financial crisis.
The third conclusion is no less
important is to depart from the fact that the interest rate (INTR) found
significant value in the conventional model, but not if he was on the model of
sharia, then it can be concluded that the policy rate as BI-rate is indeed very
effective instrument to control and influence Other monetary following
behaviors are also conventional banks. But on the other hand, it also indicates
that the conventional banking system is quite vulnerable to the volatility of
monetary and financial crisis. Thus, a rational reason for the monetary
authority in this Bank Indonesia to give more support to the sustainability of
Islamic banking and finance in Indonesia with the aim of achieving a stable
monetary conditions and optimal.
Kata
Kunci: Early Warning System, Krisis
Perbankan, Sistem Moneter Ganda, Regresi Logistik
